I’m not going to apologise for banging on about the In/Out referendum in the UK in June. It is much more important for the UK than any General Election and of great significance for the future of the EU itself.
Already it is creating fascinating and largely unforeseen consequences. Scotland sees the referendum as a lever for another bash at gaining independence, however unwise that might be. Northern Ireland is in a bit of a spot. Unionists want to remain as part of the United Kingdom; nationalists dream of a united Ireland. (Bringing these two parties together politically has been a triumph of fudge and compromise over the past twenty years.)
So let’s get down to business. Wales doesn’t count; they want to play on team England. The SNP will want their supporters to vote In and use this as the rationale for another independence referendum if the rest of the UK vote to leave. What will happen in Northern Ireland, the Province, Ulster – call it what you will? There is, of course, no referendum in the Republic of Ireland. Down there they are signed-up europhiles now. It would be most inconvenient for the economy in Ulster if the UK were to leave the EU. Nothing could be easier than to move a business from Bangor to Balbriggan. So should, on economic grounds, an Ulster voter opt to stay In? There might be a nightmare outcome if you are a Unionist; Northern Ireland and maybe Scotland vote to stay In and England and Wales vote to leave. Might then the Irish government offer to absorb Ulster within their EU membership? A united Ireland achieved in a most unexpected way. It couldn’t happen, could it?
The alternative, having Ulster outside the EU while the Republic is a member, is unpalatable. Inward investment would inevitably head to the Republic and the eurozone, leaving Ulster to struggle. This is one genie that perhaps David Cameron should have kept in the lamp.
Meanwhile, in London the mayoral election in May could be seen as a proxy for the referendum in June: Conservative, Zac Goldsmith, wants Out; Labour, Sadiq Khan, wants In. This will be a distraction from the real point: which of them will make the best mayor.
A veritable conundrum! I am undecided re the EU referendum poll, though tend towards OUT.
I live in Northern Ireland and I expect that voters here will split along the lines of the Belfast Agreement: most voting to Remain in the EU.
The Irish nationalists wish to remain; the Alliance Party (affiliated to the Liberals) wishes to remain; the SDLP (aligned with the Labour Party) wants to remain; of course Sinn Fein wants to remain.
Whereas, on the Unionist side, the DUP advises its voters to leave. The Ulster Unionists haven’t played their hand yet.
I think that the Scottish nationalists shall always desire an independence referendum until they achieve their result (if they ever do).
Whatever transpires, we must abide by the result and I suppose that’s Democracy.
Christopher – today’s entry is very thought provoking , but please remember that Northern Ireland and Ulster are not synonymous!!
I don’t know what the people living there like it to be called. I know that Ulster is incorrect so I dither between The Province and Northern Ireland – my guess is that the latter is correct as it is used by Tim Ferres.
Yes, it is. while everyone who lives in Northern Ireland lives in Ulster, so does everyone living in Counties Donegal, Cavan and Monaghan!
Christopher, I personally use the three terms for NI. You’re very wise to vary it a bit.
Christopher, I am puzzled by your argument that if the UK vote to leave the EU then Businesses in Northern Ireland might, for economic reasons, opt to relocate south across the border – “from Bangor to Balbriggan”.
Would similar economic migration not also apply to the English Channel – from Dover to Dieppe? Or to the Irish sea – from Wolverhampton to Waterford?
If the UK were indeed to opt out of the EU, would Northern Ireland not then be the ideal business location – a foothold in the UK and ready access to “EUtopia”? With the Pound and Euro this is pretty much what we already have!
First, I am wondering what might happen when the referendum vote is sliced and diced if England and Wales voted to stay In but Northern Ireland voted to leave. Would Northern Ireland have to go along with the democratic wishes of the whole UK – yes – but might they see themselves as being electorally impotent?
Secondly, your Dover to Dieppe point is well made and is why I think the UK will vote to stay In. Voters’ hearts will make them want to leave to re-gain sovereignty but their heads tell them that the economic success the UK has enjoyed since 1973 owes much to the EU.
Thirdly, if the UK decides to go Out, Northern Ireland would be badly placed with the Republic and its low corporation tax and EU access so temptingly close. England would have the same problem too as you point out. I do not accept your point that Northern Ireland would be ideally located by virtue of being on the doorstep of EU Ireland.
However, we have four long months ahead of us to sift the evidence before we have to make up our minds.