“A perfect storm is an unusual combination of events or things that produce an unusually bad or powerful result.” (Collins Dictionary)
One thing’s for sure – there’s nothing perfect about a perfect storm. It’s hard to know where to start. The AUKUS alliance is causing stress within NATO and may bring the UK new obligations in Asia. Treaty obligations are a bugger; vide 1914 and 1939. The new Russian pipeline, Nord Stream 2, delivering Russian gas to Germany should be good news but it ain’t. It gives Russia control over gas supplies to Ukraine and Poland. Russia has already invaded and taken over Crimea and has an ongoing war in Donbas (East Ukraine). Poland is a member of NATO and Ukraine wants to join; as do Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Georgia. There are two Russian enclaves in the latter taken by force. NATO already has onerous treaty obligations. Additional countries joining would be provocative and severely test the organisation’s ability to provide mutual support for its members. It’s tricky.
Closer to home businesses are struggling to hire staff. Fruit and veg farmers, haulage and hospitality are all hard hit. My favourite restaurant, Le Colombier, used to be open every day including Christmas Day, Good Friday and Easter Sunday. Now they are short of staff and close on Sunday evenings and all day Monday; a Brexit microcosm. Maybe this will not be a perfect storm but one in a teacup; let’s see.
Russia had control of Ukrainian gas well before the break up of the USSR. The Russian bases in Georgia were there during Soviet times and not taken by force.
Very tricky, indeed — as no doubt you have seen first-hand, in some cases. The Germans want their pipeline (which still leaves them more vulnerable to Russia, but less likely to get caught in the crossfire of Russia-Ukraine conflicts, they hope?) and the U.S. seems to have given in. Ukraine seems further destabilized by the loss of billions in annual transit payments (promised help to negotiate extensions notwithstanding). Poland is unhappy enough to be fighting back — and winning some — in EU court. (Interestingly, Ukraine’s own gas supply now apparently comes from repurchasing Russian gas from EU neighbors and from allies such as the U.S., so as long as they can pay for it, their supply seems more stable.)
*Politico* has rather a striking quote from “an advisor” to Ukrainian ministers: “The USA will have to deal with the consequences of this Russian ambition anyway. But to do it now, by stopping the project, is easier and cheaper than later when Russia is better prepared.”
The war in Georgia, as you point out, had Russia intervening as they did in Ukraine, with Russian troops entering Georgian territory (any dispute is over the timing, rather than the fact, I believe) to turn the tide against Georgian government forces and to assist in ethnic cleansing, leaving de-facto Russian puppet enclaves behind (“the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Russia maintained ‘direct control’ over the separatist regions and was responsible for grave human rights abuses taking place there.” says wiki, referencing the decision).
Personally, I support the expansion of NATO (and the EU) eastward, provided only that all members are committed to upholding the current understanding of the mutual aid described in Article Three. The whole thing loses credibility the minute that is tested and there is any waffling. Your caution seems well founded there. With some EU members moving away from press freedom, human rights, and democratic norms, the U.S. having a substantial minority apparently subscribing to authoritarianism and (proverbial) ostrich-like “America-first” wishful thinking, and an existing NATO member electing autocratic Islamists, is there consensus and appetite for expansion? (Then again, the Baltics and Bulgaria and Romania are already members . . . so hard to see how trouble can be avoided, if Russia becomes more aggressive.)
Meanwhile, Russian bots and paid apologists continue proliferate to spread disinformation across the Internet.
And we seem to have lost our French Ambassador.