You may be aware there will be an election in the United States in November. It’s a mugs‘ game predicting elections, except in Belarus. But Ned York, who forecast an H Clinton win four years ago and was sent to the dog house, has a thoughtful take on this year’s tussle.
“Even though I became a naturalized British subject in 2015, I forever remain a Connecticut Yankee at the Court of Queen Elizabeth II. I have lived in the UK for the past eight years but continue to be addicted to and obsessed with American politics. To me, the US presidential elections represent the most exciting form of American theatre, starring bigged-up political characters, multiple supporting partisan individuals and groups, and opposing strategies and tactics that simultaneously unfold across the stages of fifty different states. This year’s contest, set against the backdrop of the worst public health crisis in a century, the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression, the decline of Pax Americana, and the divisive unrest caused by America’s original sin of slavery and systemic racial injustices will be one of the most consequential in the country’s history, shaping the future of the nation and profoundly affecting the rest of the world.
The 2020 presidential election is fundamentally a contest of Trump versus Trump. Trump’s campaign will not attempt to reinvent him since his “unfiltered” personality is already firmly fixed in voters’ minds. In addition, Trump’s record on race, diversity, law and order, and immigration is well known to his supporters and detractors alike. (Even though America has recorded 200,000 coronavirus deaths, Trump’s approval ratings have remained constant, stuck in the low end of 40%, both before and afterthe onset of the pandemic.) While Trump will not amass a majority of the total number of votes cast throughout the U.S, his strategy is dependent upon winning just enough votes in key swing states to enable him to capture a majority of delegates to the Electoral College, the forum which officiallydetermines the outcome of each presidential contest. As background, the Electoral College is composed of 538 delegates with each of the 50 states plus the District of Columbia having a weighted representation based upon its proportionate share of the United States population. In this election it will be possible for Trump to be re-elected with a simple majority in the four swing states of Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. This is because these states have a history of switchingparty allegiance from one election cycle to the next. Consquently, in spite of the president predictably losing the large Democratic states of California, Illinois and New York by substantial margins, he could still conceivably win another term as president by prevailing in four key swing states.
So, the question is: how does Trump come up with a winning strategy, given the fact that only a very small percentage of voters (2%-4%) in a handful of swing states may ultimately be the key to determining the election outcome? The overarching story of American politics in recent years has been that certain segments of the electorate continue to remain in play: 1) voters of colour, especially Latinos, who are a growing share of the electorate; 2) white suburban voters, particularly women, with college degrees who increasingly support Democrats in the “sunshine states” (Florida, Arizona, etc.); and, 3) white voters without degrees, centred in the “rust belt” states of the mid-west (e.g., Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota), who are aligning in greater numbers with Republicans. The conundrum for Trump is that his campaign messaging is unwittingly both attracting and repelling different parts of these all important undecided groups. They include, for example, people who historically hadn’t considered racism a major issue but have, in recent months, begun to do so. This group includes both whites without college degrees and Latinos. While these segments may like his position on “law and order,” Trump simultaneously has alienated other segments of the undecideds, white voters with college degrees as well as African Americans, who are repulsed by his inflammatory racist rhetoric. And, in order to attract college educated suburban voters who may be turned away because of his overt racism, Trump doubles down and stokes white fears that voters of colour will “destroy” the suburbs. By pitching a specific message to one group of undecideds, Trump has been pushing other segments in the opposite direction towards the Democrats.
Trump has attempted to tar Joe Biden with various schoolyard insinuations and allegations intended to damage Biden’s standing. “Sleepy Joe” who is probably taking performance enhancement drugs, Trump contends, is controlled by a cabal of socialist, Marxist Democrats who want to destroy capitalism and the American way of life with a hidden “Green Revolution” agenda. In attacking Biden, Trump is acting more as if he is running against Biden in a Republican primary and not in a general election since he is not even trying to broaden his appeal to attract the small number of wavering supporters from the opposing Democratic Party. Instead, Trumpism turns out to be ever shifting late night tweets and off the cuff proclamations, unhitched from traditional Republican ideology. Thus far, Biden has proven to be an elusive target and few if any of Trump’s taunts have dented Biden’s approval rating which has remained steady since March, in the range of 48%-51%. In addition, Trump is attempting to selectively take credit for the positive aspects of his incumbency like the strength of the pre-pandemic economy and high stock market valuations. But, at the same time, he shirks any responsibility for the devastation caused by his mishandling of the coronavirus or the chaos createdby his fanning the flames of racial hatred, despite these events all happening on his watch.
The next big milestone in the contest will occur on September 29th, the date of the first of the three presidential debates. In 2016, Trump was a relatively unknown challenger, a novice on the political scene, and voters were more open to his campaign messaging. However, in 2020, after four exhausting years of the Trump presidency, the partisanship on each side has become so fixed that only small segmented slivers of the electorate can now be moved. As a result, the debates will be crucial in divining which direction the presidential race will tilt as we get closer and closer to November 3rd. Stay tuned!“