Are you in the Picture?

Here is a family snap I took at Barmeath in 1963. It says a great deal about my skill as a group portrait photographer. I must have been incredibly slow and fiddled with the camera a lot to have elicited such expressions of fierce concentration.

Anyway, they are all in the picture. The expression took on a new meaning during my brief service in the army. On Exercise I would be briefed on the scenario that formed the raison d’être for our manoeuvres. I, in turn, had to explain this to the Guardsmen, although they did not need to know unless they were quizzed by an officer umpiring the Exercise. The scenario usually involved hostilities between Blueland and Redland. It was sufficient to tell them to answer all questions – “I’m in the picture, sir.”

But, seriously, are we in the picture? You read here about nesting boxes and newly planted sweet basil but occasionally I raise my eyes and look further afield, beyond even the EU referendum. Geo-politics is a word I over-used when I was an oil broker to explain why oil prices might unexpectedly rise or fall. Now that I’ve left the City the term is still important. It can be made complex but I like to keep things simple. China is flexing its military and economic muscle in the Pacific and south-east Asia. Pakistan’s government sponsors terrorism and is under the thumb of its army. India is delivering strong economic growth and is a democracy but has Pakistan on a land border, China to the east and a disintegrating Middle East to the west. Increasingly the United States courts India as an ally. Russia used to do this but is transferring allegiance to Pakistan. China, India and Pakistan all have nuclear weapons.

Although I hope I have kept it simple, what will happen is far from clear. My point is that the tectonic plates of geo-politics are shifting as they did after the Cold War, World War II, World War I, the Congress of Vienna – keep adding to taste.

On the news last weekend a Chinese spokesman said that his country would defend their disputed military bases in the South China Sea beyond conventional warfare; chilling words. These blasted things were once called the Spratly Islands. Could you dream up a better name for some insignificant micro-dots in the ocean, now a casus belli? Richard Spratly was a British whaling captain who spotted them in 1843. Let’s hope they don’t achieve the same notoriety as Sarajevo.

There is nothing to be done but await events. Personally I think a spat over the Spratly Islands is a lot better than a mainland China invasion of Taiwan, which was on the agenda not so long ago.