Belt and Braces is what I call China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It marks the second stage of China’s rise to out-grow the United States economically. The first was the industrialisation of China, building cities and transport infrastructure. This all happened within China’s borders.
If you know as much as me about BRI you will think that China lends money to countries in Asia and Africa and then, if they fall behind on the never-never, seize the underlying assets. Remember, Sri Lanka signed over the port of Hambantota on a 99-year lease in 2017 when the country fell behind repaying about $8 billion of Chinese loans. Last year Zambia handed over its international airport and a state-owned power company because it couldn’t keep up with its repayments. But the picture is much broader.
Sixty-six countries and sixty-three percent of the world’s population will be part of the future China envisages for the planet. Dear God, doesn’t it make the Northern Power House sound pathetic. BRI will make China a super-power economically. Inevitably it will pay military dividends too. Look at how the United States became a super-power in the 20th century. Americans lost their lives in two world wars so it wasn’t a cynical power grab but the outcome after WW II was huge American loans to Europe and Western European dependence on the US for military protection.
So how will this play out? I think the rise of China is irreversible and inevitable, only the time-line is debatable. Maybe BRI will go off the rails if there is a global recession. The extent to which China’s economic dominance is reflected in military supremacy is debatable. But the Giant Panda in the room is the governance of China. Albanians used to watch Norman Wisdom films. For now the Chinese are content to live on a rising tide of prosperity – not all of them of course – but they travel and watch global media. Right now there is a benign government but regime change in China would have reverberations beyond China’s borders. Let’s hope and pray it doesn’t happen.