Brexit Britain

When Robert Peel repealed the Corn Laws in 1846 it split the Tories and cost him his job as Prime Minister.

Might Brexit be a Corn Laws moment? The analogy is clear and Boris, like Bob, has lost his job. Peel put the nation’s interests before his party and had to go. Nobody would say that Boris has ever promoted any interests except his own and had to go. Peel’s modernisation of the Tory party made him unpopular in his party but he won huge economic dividends for Great Britain in the latter half of the 19th century. Peel didn’t live to see the success of his controversial legislation – he died in 1850. Boris may be a spectator in the Brexit grandstand for thirty or more years. His legacy is debatable. (The last time I wrote about this was pre-referendum.)

It’s too early to have any idea how Brexit will play out, all we can see is the short term impact and it’s unedifying. Let’s skip the Northern Ireland protocol which makes the Schleswig-Holstein question seem simple. Let’s look at the Brexit impact in Britain. Not good if you are a farmer growing fruit and veg – no workers. Maybe the foreign, seasonal workers weren’t paid much but it was more than they could earn at home. The wider agri-business is floundering between the EU Common Agricultural Policy and the unrealised aspirations of the Conservative government, as it’s laughingly called. Inward investment to the UK has become outward investment because internationals want tariff-free access to the EU market and are spooked by rises in UK Corporation Tax.

That’s the macro-photo and, frankly, I have missed a lot. The microcosm I can see. A friend has a dog in quarantine in France because of changes to rabies rules. Restaurants here cannot get enough staff and are often open only four or five days a week. Of course they need to raise prices and are further screwed by higher food costs. Martin Vander Weyer in his Spectator column laments paying £83 for lunch à la carte in Oxfordshire and that’s before “caning the wine list” as he puts it so eloquently but possibly, just a bit not pc. Spanking it might be better. All I have is a flimsy, dark blue UK passport.

Inflation, especially energy and food bills, cannot be laid at the Brexit door but are hurting decent people who thought they had made adequate financial provision and some of whom voted Conservative. Others who were improvident are in a worse fix. Whoever is the next Prime Minister will not quote Harold MacMillan’s speech in 1957: “most of our people have never had it so good”.

The UK is in a hole but by juggling spending and austerity will get out … until the next  time.