Crisis in Kazakhstan

Unfolding events in Kazakhstan are profoundly worrying.

I went to Almaty almost twenty years ago. Like many dictatorships it seemed to be well governed and some of the people were relatively well-off; like Libya and Syria in those days. The president, 1990 – 2019, was Nursultan Nazarbayev who most unusually resigned; better to die in your bed as an old man surrounded by your family than to be gunned down. His successor may be more liberal but a transition to democracy is not simple and takes time, cf. Cuba. It looks a lot like Belarus politically and it may be another part of the Former Soviet Union that may not be keen on being a client state of Russia, like Ukraine. This puts pressure on Russia, a country deeply anxious about its place in the world. The geopolitical tectonic plates are shifting and this creates instability.

If Kazakhstan transitions to democracy it will be bad news for democracies in Europe. It will be another Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan; civil wars and instability; countries playing host to terrorists. Russia will feel threatened, squeezed; anxious about China, Europe and America as well as internal dissidents. The last thing we need is instability in such a large part of the globe with nuclear weapons.

Apparently is was de rigueur twenty years ago to wear Plus Twos east of Suez or north of the Humber.