As you probably know, there will be a presidential election in the United States on the first Tuesday after 1st November. Four years ago my friend Ned misread the runes. He’s more than welcome to have another go this year.
All we know for sure about this year’s election is, if there’s a new incumbent in the White House, the out-going president can hang out there until 20th January 2021. This is partly because it’s a big country and more because a new administration has many appointments to make. In fact a candidate starts making transition plans long before Election Day. I remember years ago some statistics relating to oil imports seeming unusual and thought probably the new team hadn’t got the hang of operating the abacus.
In the UK transition, usually, is almost instant. The pantechnicon is being loaded concurrently with the out-going premier asking Her Majesty to form a new government. There are civil servants and they don’t change, at least until they fall out with a new administration. Our Prime Ministers ride off into the sunset. They carve out new roles for themselves either in politics or business – interestingly they seldom choose the House of Lords. In the United States, Presidents are given life-long recognition and are addressed as President. Curiously former American ambassadors are addressed as Ambassador which is frankly ludicrous but more than once I have obeyed this diktat like I was in a Ferrero Rocher advertisement.
It seems increasingly likely that there will be a change of government in Belarus – a country that left the USSR in 1989 and has had the same President since 1994. I doubt President Lukashenko has any plans for a transition of power. Belarus has one great thing going for it – their people are cohesive and proud to be Belarusian. I saw that when I was in Minsk last year.
I, most unfashionably, think Lukashenko should have a Magna Carta moment and make enough concessions to at least temporarily satisfy his opponents. If he is forced to leave office Belarus will be an unstable country and probably become a Russian satellite. Actually that’s the best scenario and will not produce what the people hope for. There are other much worse outcomes that are more likely.
Like the editor of The Skibbereen Eagle, I’m keeping an eye on you Mr President:
The Eagle will still keep its eye on the Emperor of Russia and all such despotic enemies – whether at home or abroad – of human progression and man’s natural rights which undoubtedly include a nation’s right to self-government. ‘Truth’, ‘Liberty’, ‘Justice’ and the ‘Land for the People’ are the solid foundations on which the Eagle’s policy is based.
The appearance of President Lukashenko in front of the factory workers 3 days ago and HRH D of York’s interview with Ms Maitlis are neck and neck for the wooden spoon of PR events of the last 12 months. I suspect that Mr Lukashenko’s press officer may not get the generous pay off enjoyed by Pr Andrew’s. You can just hear the advice “Mr President, the workers love you. It cant go wrong”.
I suspect that you are right to think that as orderly a transition as possible is in the best interests of the Belarus people, a lesson that we, in the West, have failed to learn.
Oh dear! In the great Venn diagram of Life to be linked to Epstein and Lukashenko is most unfortunate for the D of Y.
I cannot resist it, but in respect of the title of your fascinating blog, I can only say ‘indeed it does’! The wonder of English and its nouns and verbs, both becoming increasingly muddled as we make up our modern ‘woke’ patois.
But isn’t the current Belarus situation riveting? There are shades of 25 Dec 89 and the summary disposal of M & Mme Ceausescu in the wings…let’s hope for a more considered resolution.