Should I Stay or Should I Go Now?

That’s what I think at 1.00 a.m. when my hostess is frantic to get rid of me. It’s also what good-time girl Britannia is thinking about the Euro-bash where she has been partying since 1973.

Poor old Britty; she’s in better shape than others (my, that Greek slumped in the corner looks dreadful) but she’s more than a bit befuddled. Has she been free-loading for forty-three years or has she been buying too many rounds for her pals?

I’m not going to tell you how to vote and many of you cannot vote anyway but all of you may be interested in my thinking at this stage.

First, it seems obvious that there are lies, damned lies and statistics, as Mark Twain so cogently observed, so I’m going to ignore them. Here is an example from the Brexit campaign but the Stay-In Brigade tout similar stuff to refute this – ignore it all.

The UK boxed clever in steering clear of the Euro currency. Some of the pro-Europeans conveniently forget that they campaigned pro-Euro which to my mind blows their credibility out of the water this time round; but there’s nothing to be gained by re-fighting old battles; remember, when they did it at Waterloo last year the French won. However, and I digress, Lord Bellew (um,  my brother) took part in the 2015 re-enactment as a Colonel in a British (Ulster) regiment and was not present in 1815, so maybe that swung things to Napoleon’s advantage last year?

To get back on track, there is something that the Brexiters don’t mention and they should. It is the state pension burden in Germany, France and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Italy and Spain. These countries have the same pay-as-you-go system as the UK. They have, like the UK, ageing populations with a decreasing number of workers to pay these pensions. They pay state pensions, index-linked, related to earnings. A typical pensioner might draw 25,000 Euros. In the UK think £8,000, say Euros 10,500. There will have to be some compromises in the EU: higher taxes and lower pensions. But oh wouldn’t it be lovely if there could be some mutualisation of this fiscal millstone around the necks of Louis, Hans, etc. by getting Tom, Dick and Harry in the UK to pitch in?

That prospect makes me pretty keen to get out before the bill comes but, like The Clash, I’ve not yet made up my mind.

http://youtu.be/GqH21LEmfbQ