The Law of Unintended Consequences is a pervasive tyranny that we live under. Governments raise tax rates and raise less revenue. In the UK there is a 5p charge for plastic bags so people buy big, strong plastic “bags for life” that get thrown away – you get the idea?
The latest manifestation of this Law, at least politically, is the Brexit vote. The Leavers ambushed the Establishment and David Cameron resigned. It will gradually become clear to them that they are not going to get the fruits of victory. So far they have got a new Prime Minister who is a tough cookie. They didn’t vote for her but she’s what they have got. She has given jobs in her Cabinet to the three Brexiteers but when they speak out of turn she publicly rebukes them. She sees the path to Brexit, they don’t.
The path will be one that Leavers did not expect. The most extreme of them thought that the UK could use membership of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) to govern trading relationships. They are either ignorant or stupid – let’s say both. There are four WTO members that trade under WTO rules, all the others have additional bilateral trade treaties. Of course you want to know the names of the fab four: Mongolia, Djibouti, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Madagascar. The WTO gives a big hello to almost every country but even it draws the line at North Korea.
It is clear to me that the UK must remain in the Single Market, probably as a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), joining Iceland, Norway and Lichtenstein (not Switzerland). In theory EEA members must accept free movement of people but Lichtenstein wriggled out of this. The UK will too – it’s the least it can do for the Leavers. While many EU politicos say that this is impossible, it is what will happen if there are big enough cheques going from London to Brussels, only now this contribution will be one-way, but heigh-ho that’s the Law of U C.
Do you remember Julian Slade’s musical Salad Days? It was revived at the Riverside Studios a few years ago and, though a bit dated, is a tuneful toe-tapper. His brother, Adrian Slade, is well known as a Liberal politician but less well known as a lyricist. Here is what he wrote in 1961 about the UK and the EU. It is not well known and I would never have heard it if his niece hadn’t sent it to me – so thank you, Georgie. As she says, not much has changed in the last fifty-five years.
Ah, Salad Days.Years ago I went to a party at the West of England College of Architecture and there down in the basement party area,lit by (stolen) red workmen’s lamps, we listened to John Warner and Jane Wenham sing the songs from Salad Days long before it opened. The money made from that show and its transfer to the West End, enabled The Bristol Old Vic to buy a large house near Clifton Zoo and start the Bristol Old Vic Theatre School. Many great actors have been trained there. But, no doubt you know this!