Putting on the Heat

Kew Gardens, July 2018.

What on earth am I supposed to do? I have been deprived of complaining about the London weather for weeks. I have been having cold soups, salads, gallons of rosé – I hope EJ Murgatroyd isn’t reading today – and fortunately there is AC in my attic bedroom.

It is remarkable to have such a long, hot, dry spell across most of the UK and no doubt when I’m back on cottage pie and cabbage in January I will have plenty to complain about in the weather department. For now let’s fall back on the ever-popular Brexit.

I have advice for the 27 EU members that I offer brandishing my Irish passport. They may have worked it out for themselves but if they dig their heels in and will not accept terms proposed by the present UK government we will, as night follows day, arrive at March 2019. Then with continental insouciance the EU can graciously offer to extend the termination period by up to another two years. This offer has to be unanimous amongst all 27 states but it will suit them all, especially Ireland. Then there is every chance that there will be a change of government in the UK and/or another referendum with an outcome the EU may prefer.

It seems that a no deal exit would cause considerable disruption. This month Heathrow borrowed £1 billion. If you read The Daily Telegraph this is to fund the third runway and the money is being raised ahead of time in case of Brexit-related disruption in the capital markets. There’s a different story in The FT.

Heathrow airport has raised nearly £1bn in debt to keep it going through a “worst-case scenario” following a hard Brexit, its chief executive has said. John Holland-Kaye said this was equivalent to two full years’ funding: “That gives us a level of financial resilience that means we’re well protected in case of whatever worst-case scenario we can envisage.” He said he expected “something close to continuity” through a Brexit agreement, but “our funding levels . . . mean we are protected. Even if we have no income for two months, we would be financially safe.”

What I think Mr Holland-Kaye is saying is that Heathrow could have no international flights for two months following a hard Brexit. This is why I expect the UK to accept an extension period or am I living in a world of my own?