Imagine, if you will, England in the 16th century after the Reformation; a small country on the edge of a largely Catholic continent. No, no, no, I promise this isn’t going to be about Brexit.
It is about two countries surrounded by neighbours who implacably oppose their religions: Israel and Iran. The United States supports Israel and opposes Iran. American Jews are generous political donors. It was not ever thus. After the overthrow of the Shah some of his richest acolytes fled to the United States, one of whom I came across in the course of my job. He had been the Iranian ambassador in the United States and then became the American ambassador to a country in South America. But that money has run out and now Iran gets the bum’s rush.
I sense Europe has got the message: Iran wants to modernise, wants to deal with the world, feels threatened by its neighbours and does not want to be shut out of the international community. Why does the current administration in Washington oppose this? Sir Kim Darroch in the latest leaks in the Mail on Sunday ascribes it to wanting to unpick a deal done by the Obama administration. I think it runs deeper than that. Rather than repeat myself, read A History Lesson that gives a snapshot of Iran’s place in the Middle East, then we can move on.
The Trump administration is in the unusual position of being lobbied by Israel and Saudi Arabia to crack down on Iran. Israel fears Iran’s potential nuclear capability and Sunni Saudis hate Iranian Shias. In other countries America has a goodish record surging round to protect religious minorities. But it has imposed harsh sanctions against Iran and now is being belligerent. Of course Iran feels threatened and is baring its teeth but sabre-rattling is not the answer. Iran also likes to wage proxy wars in Syria and Yemen – issues that could be addressed using more carrot than stick.
In the bigger picture the United Sates and Europe are being overtaken by an emerging super-power, China. There is everything to play for in having good relations with countries in the Middle East. It is a difficult political landscape where there is no winning move; only patience and diplomacy can keep the region stable.
Please, let’s not forget the role John Bolton, the current National Security Advisor, has played maneuvering the Trump Administration while steering its anti-Iran policy of destabilizing the Islamic theocracy. With Fox News loudly cheering and Trump doing all he can to wipe away Obama’s legacy in connection with the Iran Nuclear Deal, Bolton is the hawk behind the scenes setting America’s belligerent course in the Middle East. Tragically, I fear this will all end very badly.