A rudimentary grasp of the history of Ireland gives at least some idea of the schism convulsing the Muslim world.
Norman and Elizabethan invaders were absorbed relatively easily, largely because these invasions were on a small scale. The two subsequent invasions in the seventeenth century, by Cromwell and William of Orange, were different; they affected the whole island and they were religious wars. Ireland has never recovered from this and sectarian violence continues to this day. This helps me understand the Sunni-Shia conflict and makes me pessimistic of its ever being resolved.
Although this has replaced the Cold War as the single most important threat to global security, there is something else going on in Europe which cannot be ignored. Because of two world wars and Europe’s position between the US and the USSR it is understandable that the European Union was invented with a long-term agenda of federalism. This is being pursued by Euro-bureaucrats as I write.
The pro-Europe lobby, to my mind, are not ignorant but they are ignoring what is going on around them. In the UK there is a strong and inexorable movement towards more accountable local government. London has a mayor with some real administrative power, other cities will follow. There are local police and crime commissioners and, most important of all, within ten years Scotland will have seceded from the UK and become independent. In Europe the picture is the same. The north of Italy would like to separate from the south and the Catalans want independence, for example. The Conservative government slogan, the Big Society, misses the point. Across Europe people want a return to small government and local accountability. This may very well lead to the UK leaving the EU next year unless the EU recognises this and is prepared to de-centralise and divest itself of some of its powers. The most disastrous manifestation of European federalism has been the Euro.
If my vision of Europe in the 21st century proves correct I will be living in a society more at ease with itself, with smaller governments and institutions, greater flexibility and this will lead to greater prosperity. This is a vision not a dream. It can be done. Look at what one small country with no natural resources has achieved since it was founded 50 years ago – Singapore.