Happy new year from a wet, windswept London. It’s a time of resolutions and prognostications for 2017 in the media but here at Blog Bellew HQ we take a longer perspective.
Cast your mind back to 4000 BC when a mighty civilisation was developing in China. Nimbly leap forward to 400 BC when civilisation in Greece was flowering. Now come almost up to date; around 800 AD Ireland was having its time in the sun, metaphorically of course as the weather in Ireland on New Years Day 800 AD was probably even colder and wetter than it is today. Where should we place Britain and North America in this timeline? Did Britain reach its apotheosis in the 19th century? The Industrial Revolution, Empire, canals, railways and public buildings? Doesn’t add up to much compared to the cultural achievements of those older civilisations. North America, if President-Elect Trump is to be believed, is about to takes its place in the sun under his leadership.
Hitler in the 1930s had a similar vision and, don’t forget, that he won the populist vote and had ardent supporters in England in government, the press and among the aristocracy. Russia’s experiment with Communism – started a hundred years ago – got that poor country off to a slow start in the globalisation that characterised most of the 20th century. Europe started its experiment to build an empire only sixty years ago.
Should we have the misfortune to live for fifty years we will see how the 21st century is playing out. The rise of China and India is assured, inevitable and pointless to deny or discuss. By the same token North America, Europe and Russia will have to adapt to fit into this new world order. Trump’s experiment, if he carries it through, of putting up trade barriers will hurt his own people. If he builds bridges with Russia, seeking to marginalise China, that will fail in the long term too.
In England, I think taking a long term perspective it can no longer be called the United Kingdom, there may be a gleam of hope. Fifteen months ago I stood in the Mall to welcome China’s President. A few months ago Theresa May welcomed Hindu, Sikh and Jain leaders to 10 Downing Street to celebrate Diwali and visited India. I probably will not be on the Mall when the sheets are changed in the Visitors’ Room at Buckingham Palace for the US President but you take my point? Perfidious Albion hunts with the hounds and runs with the hare. It may be an advantage not to have to include the EU in our courtship dance with the new world order.
Meanwhile I continue to support Greece – where they haven’t been dealt a decent hand for so many centuries – by buying their olive oil. I seem to be helping out France too.
