US Election Update

Five months ago (Donald Trump Lives on a High Floor with a Low Ceiling) guest blogger, Edward (Ned) York explained why he thought Hilary Clinton would win. Let’s see how the candidates are doing and if he has changed his mind – over to you, Ned.

IT’S STILL CLINTON’S TO LOSE: U.S ELECTION UPDATE

With only days left before the United States election this Tuesday, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have increased the pace of their marathon campaigns and are now sprinting in full force towards the finish line. The stakes are high with some calling this the most important election in U.S. history. The polls are tightening somewhat and there is a palpable sense of tension and uncertainty permeating the American political landscape. However, to me, it still appears as if the state by state electoral map continues to favor Clinton and as a result I predict she will become the 45th President of the United States.

A short refresher: The race to become America’s President and Vice President is not about attaining an aggregate majority of votes across the United States. Rather, on Election Day, people in each of the fifty states will vote for a Presidential and Vice Presidential candidate of the same political party and the slate of electors pledged to represent those particular candidates. The two candidates from the same party who win a majority within any given state will capture that state’s entire delegation in “winner take all” fashion. There are 538 delegates comprising the Electoral College, essentially reflecting the number of congressional and senatorial districts proportioned according to population throughout the country. Thus, the candidates able to gather a simple majority of at least 270 delegates will formally be declared President and Vice President when the Electoral College meets as a body on December 19th to officially vote for the two highest offices in the land.

Represented by the colour blue on the electoral map of America, the Democratic Party is considered to have a structural advantage in the Electoral College. Behind this “blue wall” lie states, many carrying a high number of electoral votes, which appear to be solidly behind the Democratic Party, at least on the national level, and which a Republican candidate would likely have to write off as beyond their competitive appeal. The states behind this wall lie generally in the Northeast and West Coast, and include some of the Great Lakes. In each of the past 6 election cycles, the Democratic Party has won 18 of these states totalling 242 of the necessary 270 votes need to win. (The “big three” Democratic stronghold states include California, New York and Illinois.) The states which Republicans have won, the “red states” in the last 6 cycles include much of the Deep South, Mid-West and Far West, yielding a total of 158 votes. With the changing demographic composition of each state constantly in flux, at the heart of the 2016 presidential election are the all important four “swing states” of Ohio (18 electoral delegates), Pennsylvania (20), North Carolina (15) and Florida (29). These states will largely decide the outcome of the election and they will be where both Clinton and Trump will be spending the waning hours of their campaigns.

At this late stage each candidate is loudly proclaiming the reasons why he/she should be voted President and stridently emphasizing why NOT to vote for their rivals. Trump touts the fact that he is a successful businessman/dealmaker who as an outsider is prepared to shake up the political establishment while in the most harsh language possible descrying his opponent as “crooked Hillary” who he contends after 30 years amidst the Washington elite has done nothing to change a “rigged” system. His supporters represent the emergence of white nationalism and authoritarianism as the driving force on the American right. In contrast, Clinton stresses her political experience and qualifications, her history of championing signature causes (e.g., equal rights, gun control, pro-choice, etc.) and the opportunity for America to finally elect a woman President. However, she is equally vociferous in condemning Trump and argues that he is blatantly lacking the personal characteristics to lead the nation. Her supporters reflect the rising coalition of women and minorities who are increasing as a determinate, growing faction of the U.S. electorate.

Throughout the campaign, Trump has done little to expand his appeal and to undertake a bona fide effort to enlarge his base of supporters. In fact, he has done just the opposite: he has repeatedly insulted groups of voters that any politician needs in order to triumph. He has alienated Latinos with his call for “building a great big beautiful wall” to halt illegal immigration; African Americans by describing their communities as “war zones”; Muslims when promising a moratorium on allowing people of the Islamic faith to enter the United States; and, women while boasting of his assaults on females—eleven of whom have come forward and accused him of just that. Trump is not only a flawed political, he, I believe, is a flawed and indecent human being.

On the other hand, Clinton has her own deficiencies and negatives. She has a tendency toward secrecy; she is glaringly unpopular with white men; questions continue to linger about whether her family philanthropic foundation helped donors and friends; and, there are lingering clouds from her tenure at the State Department, including her private email system, the Benghazi attacks in which four Americans were killed and her support for military intervention in Libya. In addition, there is her husband who has a reputation for his lack of discipline as well as the fact that he was impeached by the House of Representatives for perjury and obstruction of justice, albeit he was acquitted by the Senate of all charges during the final years of his presidency.

Trump’s unconventional candidacy presents a daunting challenge to Clinton but it also creates difficult problems for him. Trump’s supporters make up a relatively small (and, demographically shrinking) part of the electorate and therefore he needs to fire up his fanatical base by vehemently attacking Democrats as well as “establishment” Republicans of his own party. In addition, he is targeting Clinton heavily in hopes of belittling her and thereby lowering the turnout of her supporters. Clinton is also concentrating on motivating her supporters not only in the Democratic “blue states” but also in the battleground “swing states” as well. She will have the superior field organization on Election Day, backed by the greater financial resources.

In the end, I believe that the American people appreciate that they are electing the commander in chief. Trump may be an unconventional candidate, but he’s also a risky, dangerous candidate when it comes to people’s economic lives and safety and security abroad.

Edward York, 6 November 2016.